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Markov's Inequality

Formula

\[ P(X \ge a) \le \frac{\mathbb{E}[X]}{a},\quad a>0 \]

Parameters

  • \(X\ge 0\): nonnegative random variable
  • \(a\): positive threshold

What it means

Upper-bounds tail probability using only the mean.

What it's used for

  • Upper-bounding tail probabilities for nonnegative variables.
  • Quick conservative risk bounds.

Key properties

  • Very general but often loose
  • Basis for Chebyshev and other bounds

Common gotchas

  • Requires \(X\ge 0\).
  • Bound can be vacuous if \(a\) is small.

Example

If \(E[X]=2\), then \(P(X\ge 6)\le 2/6=1/3\).

How to Compute (Pseudocode)

Input: assumptions/quantities required by the theorem or inequality (for example means, variances, sample size)
Output: bound, approximation, or theorem-based diagnostic

verify the theorem/inequality assumptions (at least approximately/in modeling terms)
compute the bound or approximation using the card formula
return the resulting bound/approximation and note its conditions

Complexity

  • Time: Usually \(O(1)\) once the required summary quantities are available
  • Space: \(O(1)\)
  • Assumptions: This is a formula-application workflow; estimating required moments/parameters from data can dominate cost (often \(O(n)\))

See also